A heated debate has erupted over Nigeria’s energy future following a controversial recommendation by the World Bank suggesting the country prioritize fuel imports over domestic refining. While the Washington-based institution argued that imported petrol is currently cheaper than local production, the proposal has been met with stiff resistance from key industry stakeholders and energy experts who view it as a threat to national economic sovereignty.
The World Bank’s Volte-Face
The controversy began with the World Bank’s Nigeria Development Update (NDU), released on April 7, which urged Nigeria to open its borders to imports to “edge” the Dangote Refinery on a price basis. However, following a massive public and professional backlash, the Bank took the unusual step of deleting the report from its website.
By Thursday of last week, the World Bank clarified that it was not issuing a “blanket stamp” on importation but was instead advocating for a broader strategy of consumer protection. The Bank shifted its stance toward recommending “targeted support” for vulnerable Nigerians through social safety nets rather than a direct push for increased imports.
“Let Nigeria Be” — Experts Fault External Influence
Energy analysts argue that the World Bank’s initial stance was an “unnecessary theory” that ignored the current geopolitical reality, specifically the Iran-US-Israel war, which entered its seventh week today.
Dr. Tim Okon, Managing Partner of TENO Energy Resources, told DAILY POST that the World Bank’s outsized influence is a symptom of Nigeria’s debt profile.
- On Influence: “Why should the view of the World Bank be this important? It has become important because we have borrowed too much from them.”
- On Market Disruption: Okon noted that the rise of domestic refining in Nigeria has disrupted European supply chains that previously relied on Nigerian imports.
- On Consumer Choice: He suggested that instead of focusing solely on imports, Nigeria should offer multiple petrol blends (e.g., standard vs. super premium) at different price points to suit various vehicle types.
IPMAN Stands with Dangote
The Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN) has taken a firm “Nigeria First” stance, echoing the policy advanced by President Bola Tinubu. IPMAN President Abubakar Maigandi urged both the government and marketers to ignore the import advice and patronize local refineries.
Current Market Data (April 2026):
- Dangote Exit Price: Approximately ₦1,200 per litre.
- Depot Prices: Ranging between ₦1,220 and ₦1,240 per litre.
- Maigandi’s Verdict: “Dangote’s product is always cheaper than any product that you know, and it has a very good quality… Fuel import will not be good at all for the Nigerian economy.”
A House Divided?
While most groups, including the Crude Oil Refinery-Owners Association (CORAN) and the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), rejected the World Bank’s proposal, one group broke ranks.
The Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association (PETROAN), led by Billy Gillis-Harry, backed the World Bank’s call for imports. PETROAN argued that a purely domestic supply could create a monopoly and that competition from imports is necessary to ensure fair pricing in the downstream sector.
The Path Ahead
As the global oil market remains volatile due to Middle Eastern tensions, the Nigerian government faces a critical choice: double down on the ₦19 trillion invested in domestic refining capacity or return to the import-dependent model favored by international lenders. For now, the momentum in Abuja appears to be swinging heavily toward the “patronize local” strategy, with the Dangote Refinery serving as the cornerstone of Nigeria’s bid for energy independence.
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