Nigeria’s gross external reserves declined by $499.46 million over a 14-day period, falling to $49.53 billion as of March 25, 2026. This represents a roughly 1 percent contraction from the $50.02 billion recorded on March 11.
Despite this short-term depletion, the current figure remains significantly higher than the $45.01 billion average maintained in 2025. The dip also places the reserves slightly below the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Governor Olayemi Cardoso’s year-end projection of $51.04 billion.
Factors Influencing the Reserve Movement
The recent decline comes amid a series of aggressive structural reforms by the CBN aimed at stabilizing the Naira and increasing market transparency:
- IMTO Regulatory Shift: On March 24, the CBN issued a new directive mandating that all International Money Transfer Operators (IMTOs), such as Western Union and MoneyGram, route diaspora remittances through designated Naira settlement accounts. Effective May 1, 2026, this policy ends the practice of direct dollar payouts to beneficiaries, aiming to funnel more foreign exchange into the official banking system to curb parallel market leakages.
- Reversal of IOC Cash Pooling: In a major policy pivot on March 25, the apex bank scrapped the 2024 “cash pooling” requirements for International Oil Companies (IOCs). IOCs are now permitted to repatriate 100 percent of their export earnings immediately, removing the previous rule that required them to wait 90 days to access half of their funds. While this move is intended to attract more foreign investment and “unfettered” dollar flows, it creates a temporary shift in how foreign exchange is held within the domestic system.
- Currency Pressure: The Naira traded at approximately 1,383.88 to the Dollar on Thursday, March 26. Analysts suggest the reserve dip may be partly due to the CBN’s strategic interventions to provide liquidity to authorized dealers and Bureau De Change (BDC) operators to maintain the currency’s relative stability.
The 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook
Governor Cardoso remains optimistic about the long-term trajectory of Nigeria’s external buffers. Earlier in the year, he noted that gross reserves had hit a 13-year high of $50.45 billion in February, supported by a “remarkable” increase in net reserves, which rose from just under $4 billion in late 2023 to over $34 billion by early 2026.
The CBN maintains that the current “resilient” position—providing nearly 10 months of import cover—is a validation of ongoing reforms in crude oil revenue remittance and tighter monetary policy.
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