Political analyst Aminu Rabiu has issued a stern warning regarding Nigeria’s shifting political landscape, suggesting that the country’s drift toward a one-party dominant system could destabilize democratic structures and potentially create a “fertile ground” for military intervention.
In an exclusive interview with DAILY POST on Saturday, March 28, 2026, Rabiu highlighted that while Nigeria remains a multi-party state constitutionally, the current reality reflects a lopsided political field dominated by the All Progressives Congress (APC).
Historical Parallels and Democratic Risks
Rabiu drew stark comparisons to previous eras of Nigerian political dominance, noting that even under the military rule of Ibrahim Babangida in 1993, a two-party system (SDP and NRC) was maintained to ensure competition. He argued that the current trajectory mirrors the First and Second Republics, where the dominance of single parties—the NPC and NPN, respectively—and the subsequent weakening of opposition led to the military coups of 1966 and 1983.
“If it becomes a one-party system, there will be no checks and balances,” Rabiu stated. “Opposition parties help to ensure transparency and hold the ruling party accountable.”
The “Unprecedented” Wave of Defections
The analyst pointed to the staggering rate of defections into the ruling party as evidence of this shift. Recent data indicates that approximately 31 out of 36 state governors are now members of the APC. Notable recent moves include:
- Governor Agbu Kefas (Taraba): Officially received into the APC in late January 2026.
- Governor Caleb Mutfwang (Plateau): Defected from the PDP in December 2025.
- Governor Ahmadu Fintiri (Adamawa): Joined the ruling party in March 2026.
Rabiu warned that this consolidation reduces the choices available to the electorate and is likely to result in significant voter apathy during the 2027 general elections, as citizens may feel their votes cannot change a predetermined outcome.
Allegations of Institutional “Witch-Hunting”
The interview also touched on the perceived use of state institutions to target dissenters. Rabiu cited the legal challenges facing prominent figures who have adopted opposition stances, specifically mentioning:
- Nasir El-Rufai: The former Kaduna Governor, who joined the African Democratic Congress (ADC) in late 2025, was recently in ICPC custody over financial misconduct allegations before receiving a temporary release for his mother’s funeral.
- Abubakar Malami: The former Attorney General has also faced increased scrutiny, which Rabiu claims is linked to his current political positioning.
The Path Forward
To prevent a total collapse of the competitive democratic process, Rabiu called for:
- Civic Education: Increased public awareness regarding the value of a multi-party system.
- Civil Society Engagement: Proactive monitoring of democratic safeguards by local organizations.
- International Intervention: Engagement from the global community to ensure the 2027 electoral cycle remains transparent and inclusive.
The analyst concluded by noting that while the PDP remains embroiled in internal leadership crises, the emerging ADC-led coalition—reportedly involving figures like Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso—represents the final viable platform for a “grand opposition” to challenge the current status quo.
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